How to truly and quickly forecast the TBM impact point is a critical and decisive step in ATBM deployment and in raising the intercept probability. This paper introduces the reference frame in the process of anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile, builds up a mathematic model of impact point estimation based on the state of burnout point under proper assumption. The model is simple and precise, and the application of it can get over the shortage and abuse of the existing method. And simultaneously the error of impact point is analyzed by using the method of CEP, and then Monte Carlo simulation is done by using the model. The simulating results show that there is a small windage between the estimating value and the true value in the impact point estimation, which is actually caused by the model error and air resistance, etc., the model mentioned in this paper has a less error in impact point estimation. This just shows that the model is bettering reliability and practicality, and is of some practical meaning in TBM impact point estimation.