Abstract:Spare parts are the important material basis of the usage and implement of equipment, and the estimation of the spare parts consumption is the core question in formulating the support plan, which will directly affect the performance of the follow-up work including the raising, the assignment, the storage and the appropriation. According to the history consume and the source of navigation equipment maintenance spare parts characteristic, using simple move in average to correct the historical data, adopting the season exponent to forecast the maintenance consumption of spare parts, and testing the forecasting accuracy with the model of GM (1,1).As a result, the certain navigation equipment consumption numbers of spare parts in 2008 are respectively 209 and 214. The two forecast results differ within 3%.Through the comparison between the two forecast methods, different use conditions are generalized, which can guide the further research of the forecast of spare parts.