Systematic development approach of military ATS belongs to the front domain of current weapon equipment maintenance and is on developing. So its research in prospective theory and developing method should be strengthened to meet technical requirements of further military ATS development. The test system evolution development approach, as a new method of military ATS development, its emphasis is put on the microcosmic analysis of the development process to get a flat transition from requirement to realization. Ripple effect, as a microcosmic characteristic of test system evolution development process, is studied. First, a component model used to describe test system is presented. Based on the model, reach-ability matrix and effect matrix are created to analyse ripple effect and calculate its quantity. At last, the ripple effects caused by component deletion, addition, modification, division and combination are discussed in detail. The work here laid the foundation for evolution development of test system.